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制高点-第20部分
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CECILIA LEE： Don't eat too much
CECILIA LEE：不要吃得太多
。 最好的txt下载网
Chapter 9： China and the Tigers ＇5：35＇
第九章： 中国和亚洲４小龙
NARRATOR： In the early '90s； David Lee returned to his homeland for the first time in over four decades。
旁白：在９０年代早期，David Lee４０年来首次回到了家乡。
Onscreen caption： Shanghai； China
字幕：上海，中国
DAVID LEE： I was always afraid to go back to a munist country。 I was born in Beijing； actually right in Tiananmen Square。 And we left there after the revolution in 1949。 We were very lucky we were able to leave the country。 We were like the boat people on top of a cargo ship。 We left everything。 The only thing ＇we had＇ is whatever we could carry。
DAVID LEE：我过去总是害怕，不敢回到这个共产主义国家。我出生在北京，实际上就在天安门广场。我们于１９４９年解放的时候离开了中国。能离开那个地方我们感到非常幸运。当时，我们就象船夫一样呆在一艘货船的顶部。我们丢下了所有的一切。唯一的财产就是我们所能够携带的东西。
This is a freetrade zone。 Anything you do in here you don't have to pay tariff； or you can build the thing and then ship it out for export purposes。
这里是一个自由贸易区。你在这里干什么都不用付关税，或者生产货物，接着将之运出，用作出口。
NARRATOR： David Lee set up a joint venture in a freetrade zone near Shanghai。 Lee saw firsthand a China in the midst of epic economic transformation。
旁白：David Lee在靠近上海的自由贸易区地方成立了一家合资公司，Lee首先看到了正处于经济转型时期的中国。
China's munist leadership had embraced markets and weled hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment。 Almost onequarter of the world's population was entering the global market for the first time。
中国共产党的领导层已经接受了市场经济并对数千亿的国外投资持欢迎态度。占世界人口四分之一的人们首次进入了全球市场。
Onscreen caption： Economic reforms lifted 300 million Chinese out of poverty。
字幕：经济改革使３０００万中国人口摆脱了贫穷。
In villages across China and throughout the developing world； people left their rural homes。 They traveled to industrial towns； seeking work in new factories built to serve the global market。
在中国和所有发展中国家的村落里，人们离开了他们的家园来到工业城市，在为全球市场服务的新工厂里寻找工作机会。
The era of globalization saw the largest wave of human migration in history。 Eighty percent of the world's future economic growth is expected to occur in cities rather than the countryside。
全球化时代经历了历史上最大了人口迁移浪潮。根据预测，未来世界经济增长中，有８０％将来自于城市而不是农村。
LIN SHENGXIN； Factory Worker； China： I was a schoolteacher in the countryside。 At that time I only earned 100 a month。 My parents are both farmers； so we lived a very poor life。 But now I'm earning 3；000 a month。 My life is totally different。 My child is going to school here； near the factory。 So we are living a much； much better life now。
LIN SHENGXIN； 工厂工人，中国：我原是一名乡村教师。那时，我每月的收入只有１００元，我的父母都是农民，所以我们的生活非常贫穷，但是，现在我每个月有３，０００元的收入，我的生活完全改变了，我的孩子也在这里上学，在靠近工厂的一所学校里，我们现在的日子比以前好很多。
Onscreen caption： Singapore
字幕：新加坡
NARRATOR： China's leaders hoped to emulate the "；tiger economies"； of Southeast Asia； where trade and investment had transformed onceimpoverished nations。
旁白：中国领导人希望仿效东南亚的“小虎经济模式”，在东南亚，贸易和投资已经完全改变了曾一度非常贫穷的国家。
LEE KUAN YEW； Senior Minister of Singapore： When the British came here in 1819； they found a fishing village of about 120 people。 When the empire broke up； everybody wanted to do their own trading； and we could easily have withered on the vine。 So we just had to make ourselves relevant to the world。 And the countries that make themselves relevant bee better off； their people bee better off。 Those who opt out； they suffer。
李光耀，新加坡高级部长：１８１９年英国人到达这里的时候，他们看到的是一个只有１２０人的小渔村。在英殖民帝国崩溃的时候，每个人都想进行他们自己的贸易，而我们可能会在这种情形下失败。所以，我们必须使自己成为这个世界的一部分。那些使自己相互关联的国家变的更加繁荣，他们的人民也更加富有。那些选择孤立在世界之外的国家则遭受到了痛苦。
NARRATOR： Since the 1970s； the countries of Southeast Asia had bee became worldclass exporters； shipping everything from cars to puters across the globe。
旁白：自从２０世纪７０年代以来，东南亚国家已经变成了世界一流的出口国，把从汽车到电脑等产品运往全球各地。
DANIEL YERGIN： They called it the Asian economic miracle because the world had not really seen that kind of economic growth； that many people brought out of poverty； that rapid a creation of a middle class so quickly anywhere in the history of the world。 DANIEL YERGIN：他们称之为亚洲经济奇迹，因为世界经济从来没有经历过如此的增长，许多人民脱离了贫困，中产阶级形成速度之快也是世界历史上从来没有过的。
NARRATOR： By the mid90s； many Asian economies were growing at the astonishing rate of 10 percent or more each year。
旁白：直到９０年代中期，许多亚洲经济体都还在以令人吃惊的速度增长——年度增长率达１０％甚至更高。
LEE HSIEN LOONG； Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore： There was a tremendous confidence and hope that this was the Asian century； and the place was being transformed； and you just had to put money there and it would grow on trees。
李显龙，新加坡副总理：人们非常自信地认为并希望这将是亚洲的世纪，这个地区正在转型， 你只要把钱放在这儿，接着树上就会长出钱来
DANIEL YERGIN： I remember the CEO of one major pany in about 1995 or so saying； "；If we're not investing in Asia tomorrow； we're too late。"；
DANIEL YERGIN：我记得在大约在１９９５年有一位大公司的首席执行官说过：“如果我们明天还没有将钱投资在亚洲地区，我们就太迟了。”
。。
Chapter 10： The Japanese Paradox ＇3：01＇
第十章： 日本的矛盾
Onscreen caption： Tokyo； Japan
字幕：东京，日本
NARRATOR： Yet there was one big exception。 Japan； the world's second largest economy； had fallen into a deep； unexpected slump that shook the confidence of its people。
旁白：但是，这里也有一个极大的例外——日本，世界第二大经济体——已经深深陷入了意外的衰退之中，这一衰退动摇了日本人民的自信心。
KAORI MARUYA； Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs； Japan： Japan was in the socalled bubble economy； and at that time the Japanese people were not very careful about debt。 After the collapse of the bubble economy； people came back to reality and came down from their dreams。
KAORI MARUYA； 日本外务省初级秘书； 日本：日本曾处在所谓的泡沫经济中，当时，日本民众对债务问题并不十分谨慎。在泡沫经济破灭之后，人们从梦境中醒来，重新回到现实之中。
Onscreen caption： Japanese banks hold 1 trillion in bad debts。
字幕：日本银行有1万亿美元的坏帐。
NARRATOR： Japan's economy once looked unstoppable； but it was slow to adapt to the rapid changes of a fastmoving； interconnected world。
旁白：日本经济曾一度看起来势不可挡，但是，在接纳这个快速移动、互相联系的世界所发生的迅猛变化的时候，日本动作缓慢。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA； Vice Minister of Finance； Japan； 19971999： Japan is a very sort of parochial and very closed economy； there's no question about it。 Walk around the Japanese cities； you don't see many foreigners。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA； 大藏省次长； 日本，19971999：日本是一个地域狭小的国家，经济非常封闭，这一点毋庸质疑。在日本城市中闲逛的时候，你不会看到很多外国人。
NARRATOR： Japan； the great exporter； protected its domestic industries。 At the heart of the country's economic problems lay a contradiction。
旁白：最大的出口国——日本——对国内工业实施保护政策。在此国家的经济问题的中心存在着一个矛盾
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA： One sector of the Japanese economy is an exportoriented sector which is highly petitive； consisting of Toyotas and Sonys。 And the other is domestic manufacturing sector which is extremely unpetitive。 We have a marketoriented capitalistic system on the one hand； we have a very socialistic； egalitarian sector on the other。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA：日本经济的一个部分是以出口为导向的产业部门，竞争非常激烈，包括丰田和索尼等公司。其它部门为国内制造产业，竞争极小。一方面，我们有以市场为导向的资本主义体系，而另一方面，我们也有社会主义的、平均主义的产业部门。
NARRATOR： In Japan； government bureaucrats managed a highly regulated economy。 As Masahisa Naitoh was to learn； ideas about change met with profound skepticism。
旁白：在日本，政府官僚们对经济实施高度调控。正如Masahisa Naitoh曾学到的那样，变革观念受到了极大的怀疑。
MASAHISA NAITOH； Ministry of Trade and Industry； Japan； 19611993： I wanted to deregulate our financial system。 The new global markets of the 1990s created a new reality。 I said we had to change for Japan to thrive in the new world economy。 My colleagues in the government criticized me。 They said that it was in the best interest of Japan that my ideas be destroyed。 MASAHISA NAITOH，通产省，日本，19611993：我想要取消对金融体系的调控，90年代的新型全球市场经济产生了新的现实，我说过，如果日本要在新世界经济里繁荣昌盛，我们就必须要进行变革，我在政府里的同事批评我，他们说，消灭我的观念才符合资本的最高利益。
NARRATOR： Naitoh was fired without warning。 Japan stuck to its old ways； and the nation's economic slump continued。 For the first time； an Asian "；economic miracle"； was in trouble。
旁白：Naitoh在没有收到任何预警的情况下就被解雇了，日本仍在墨守成规，其经济衰退仍在继续。亚洲的“经济奇迹”首次陷入困境之中。
。。
Chapter 11： Global Contagion Begins ＇7：55＇
第十一章： 全球性的影响开始了
Onscreen caption： Bangkok； Thailand
字幕：曼谷，泰国
By early 1997； Southeast Asia's rapid economic boom was overheating。 Sirivat Voravetvuthikun was one of many who thought the good times would never end。
到1997年初，东南亚快速的经济崛起达到了白热化的程度。Sirivat Voravetvuthikun 是很多以为这样的好日子永远不会结束的人中的一员。
SIRIVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN； Former Real Estate Developer； Thailand： Ever since I was a child； I have been wanting to be a multimillionaire。 I wanted to be rich。 I wanted to do something that no one has done build a luxurious condominium。 I knew a lot of rich people and multimillionaires would like to take time off to play golf； to enjoy the fresh air in the mountains； which you cannot find in Bangkok。
SIRIVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN，曾是泰国的地产开发商：自从我还是个孩子的时候起，我就一直期待着要成为一个百万富翁。我想要成为富人。我想要做一些别人没有做过的事情 – 建造一座豪华的公寓。我知道很多富人和百万富翁都希望到山里休假去打高尔夫球，去享受你在曼谷找不到的新鲜空气。
I looked at the golf course。 It's designed by Jack Nicklaus。 I put my effort into making it one of the most beautiful condominiums in Thailand。 Still today； with the mountains in the background； with a fairway and a lake in front of the condominium； it's really beautiful。
我看了这个高尔夫球场，是由JACK NICKLAUS 设计的。我为了要把它建成泰国最美的豪华公寓之一做出了很多努力。直到今天，有这些山峦作背景，公寓前面的高尔夫球道和湖泊映衬着它，确实很美。
ANAND PANYARACHUN； Prime Minister of Thailand； 19911993： People were just buying apartments and condominiums like they were gambling。 And they were tempted by this easy money； tempted by this easy profit。
ANAND PANYARACHUN，泰国总理，1991 – 1993：那时人们购买公寓和豪华公寓就象在赌博。而且他们也被这种轻易得来的金钱和利益所驱使。
NARRATOR： During the '90s； Thailand had opened up its capital markets。 For the first time； local businesses could borrow money from foreign banks which offered lower interest rates。
旁白：在九十年代，泰国开放了它的资本市场。当地的企业第一次可以向利息比较低的外国银行贷款了。
ANAND PANYARACHUN： People would e and knock on your door and plead with you to borrow； be they European or Japanese banks。 The Western financial world； the banks or the financial panies； they came and begged us to borrow from them。
ANAND PANYARACHUN：人们会来敲你的门，恳请你借钱，无论是欧洲银行还是日本银行。西方金融界，银行或是金融机构，他们来乞求我们向他们借钱。
NARRATOR： In just four years； loans to Thai businesses had tripled to over 200 billion。 American and European governments encouraged the inflow of money。
旁白：只用了四年，对泰国的企业的贷款就增长了两倍，达到两千亿美元。美国和欧洲国家的政府鼓励这种资本的输入。
ROBERT RUBIN： Oh； yeah。 We were very strong advocates of opening up capital markets and the benefits that could flow there from； but we were also strong advocates at the same time； because we recognized the tie of developing the banking systems； the capital markets； and developing regulatory systems； none of which is easy。
罗伯特。鲁宾：噢，是的。我们当时是非常提倡开放资本市场及宣传由此可以带来的好处的。但是，同时我们也强调发展银行体系，资本市场与发展调控体系的联系。我们意识到这一切都不容易。
DANIEL YERGIN： And there was an underlying flaw in the system that people really didn't focus very much on； which was the institutional weakness。 What that meant is the banking systems were not well developed； securities laws were not well developed。 They had not kept up with the development of these economies and their integration into the world economy。
DANIEL YERGIN：而且，当时在体系的内部有一个没有被人们充分关注的内在的问题，即体制上的弱点。这意味着银行体系并没有得到很好的发展；安全法没有得到很好的发展。它们没能与这些经济的发展保持同步，也没能与世界经济接轨。
NARRATOR： Thailand's Central Bank had kept its currency artificially high； fueling the speculative bubble。
旁白：泰国的中央银行人为地将它的货币币值保持在高水平，助长了投机的泡沫。
The International Monetary Fund； which acts as a bank of last resort to countries in financial trouble； began to worry that Thailand was heading for a fall。
国际货币基金组织，作为那些遇到金融危机国家的最后的救命稻草，开始担心泰国正在走向衰落。
STANLEY FISCHER； First Deputy Managing Director； International Monetary Fund； 19942001： I went to Bangkok in May 1997。 It was full of cranes everywhere； and it looked like the boom would never end。 But they were very weak banks who were lending against buildings which were never going to be filled。
STANLEY FISCHER，国际货币基金组织第一副总干事，19942001：我于1997年5月去了曼谷。当时到处都是吊车，看上去就是感觉这种高速发展永远都不会结束。但是有很多弱小的银行将资金贷给那些以永远都不会建起来的楼房作抵押的项目。
NARRATOR： Muang Thong Thani was a sign of the times a "；new city"； built from scratch for 700；000 people。 It was meant to be bigger than Boston。 But almost no one was moving in。
旁白：MUANG THONG THANI 是那个时代的一个标志 —— 一座为70万人口拔地建起的“新城”。它本来是要建成比波士顿还要大的城市。但是几乎没有人搬进去。
MARK MOBIUS： The vision was great。 The vision was to take this huge tract of land and build a city； basically。 between the downtown congested Bangkok and the airport。 So the concept was excellent。 The problem was it was financed by
MARK MOBIUS：那个愿景是美妙的。那个愿景基本上就是在这一片巨大的土地上建造一座城市。问题出在它是用美元资金来支持的。
NARRATOR： Thailand's currency； known as the baht； was pegged to the dollar。 As the Thai economy weakened； financial markets sensed this policy couldn't last。
旁白：泰国的货币，铢，是和美元挂钩的。当泰国经济疲软下来后，资本市场就意识到这一政策不会长久了。
STANLEY FISCHER： Thailand had fixed the value of its currency in terms of dollars。 It had a fixed exchange rate。 And as people began to wonder； "；Well； do they actually have enough dollars to always be able to give me dollars in exchange for the baht； the Thai currency I have？；"； and when they begin to wonder about that； they start asking for the dollars； and then they attack the currency。
STANLEY FISCHER：泰国固定了本国货币与美元的�
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